Can Bernie Sanders still Win the Democratic Nomination?

Despite the assertions to the contrary in the media, I say the answer is “yes”.   Unlikely, but so has been the Sanders campaign all along.    It boils down to this:  most of the super delegates are now “pledged” to Clinton, but unlike the regular pledged delegates they can change their minds.

If the notion of super delegates confuses you, they are selected from Democratic Party insiders  who give the party a chance to tip the balance to the candidate they prefer.  After this election, the Republicans might want to give it a try.  While Sanders would need most of these super delicates to change their minds and the circumstances in general don’t favor him, it is possible which is why Sanders still does not acknowledge defeat.

Here’s how it stands.  According to the AP, Clinton has a 268 pledged delegate lead over Sanders with 781 delegates up for grabs.   Sanders would need a surprising landslide to make up his deficit and surpass Clinton in overall pledged votes.  As such, Hillary seems likely to have the most ballot box votes and the most pledged delegates after Tuesday night, giving no reason for those in her super delegate corner to change their minds.  That’s why many talk about the campaign as game over.

Unless, unless something majorly bad happens to the Clinton campaign before the convention in August.   If you are thinking “indictment”, we are of like minds.   My sense is that is unlikely too, but not impossible.

Sanders doesn’t bring up the possibility, because it would make it look like he is hoping she will be indicted despite him saying all along “enough about Hillary’s emails”.  But without that (or something of comparable sinkable impact), Sanders doesn’t have a chance.

While Sanders won’t mention the ugly word, well known actor and staunch supporter Susan Sarandon was happy to inject the idea in an interview Thursday.   She wondered out loud why there hasn’t been more talk about Hillary’s indictment.  When the reporter interjected that there hasn’t been an indictment, Sarandon responded:  “No, but there’s going to be. There’s going to be. I mean, it’s inevitable.”

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P. S. – In case you want to do your own delegate math, check out the AP breakdown found in the New York Times.  It is the clearest depiction that I’ve encountered.

 

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